Time to Rip or Time to Dip?
FOMC Tomorrow plus Wednesday Watchlist
TLDR Wednesday Watchlist at the bottom of the post.
Tomorrow is a big day. We have FOMC plus some big levels on S&P500 about ready to break. The market is expecting a 0.25% rate hike on the Fed Funds rate. If we get 0.50%, expect a massive drop. Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens, so we just prepare for possible scenarios. What makes big moves days hard is how far do the moves go. All irrationality gets thrown out the window and the only thing you can rely on is your preparation, support/resistance levels, and risk management.
Today’s Watchlist Results:
The market was really slow all day, just grinding higher, but wound up ripping into the close. My own bias got in the way and I missed both BA 0.00%↑ and $XOM. I caught CRM 0.00%↑ and $TSLA, however, I took profits a bit early on both due to the slowness. I was expecting for the profits to bleed out with the slowness. You never know, all you can do is follow a plan.
I expect there to be some slowness after the open leading into FOMC at 2pm EST. We could also see shakeouts and chop.
If the market decides to crash or going on an abosule rip, I’ll adjust intraday and look for trades beyond the watchlist. More key support/resistance levels could come into play and I will update with any other tickers before FOMC rolls around.
For some of the trade ideas and charts below, review Monday and Tuesday’s Newsletter for a little context and refresh. Some of the trade setups are exactly the same and haven’t changed.
#ES E-Mini Futures
Upside: 4110, **4180**,4215, 4260, 4300
Downside: 4080, 4050, 4020*, 4000,3980-3975, 3950, 3915*, 3860, 3810, 3775*
The market showed really good strength today even though it was a slow grind type of day. With enough strength to get over 4080, the markets are set up nicely for a 4100 test. Remember how important the 4100-4125 area has been? I mentioned this the other day…Back in March thru June 2022, we saw this area act as a magnet and